- A Climate Suitability Analysis for Western Hemlock: Modeling Future Occurrence Probability of Tsuga heterophylla at the UBC Vancouver Campus
To better manage green spaces in the face of climate change, the Social Ecological Economic Development Studies program of the University of British Columbia (UBC) organized a series of projects to predict the climate suitability of common tree species at Vancouver campus by 2100. Coniferous trees are vulnerable to changing precipitation and temperature. Western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) is a common coniferous tree species at UBC Vancouver campus and was chosen to be analyzed in this study. Climate suitability analysis was done using a MaxEnt model. As a machine-learning algorithm not requiring data about absent points, MaxEnt is considered to be a good tool for predicting the distribution of species. There were 19 bioclimatic variables tested in the analysis, and the precipitation in the coldest quarter of the year was determined to be the most important climatic variable affecting the growth of Western hemlock. The results showed that the occurrence probability of Western hemlock would drop from its current ~87% to ~10% under one of the most likely climate models in 2100. Although this result could not represent the real occurrence probability of Western hemlock by the end of the century due to the limited data and variables considered, this study provided a reference for future climate suitability analysis for other tree species and could potentially help with the protection of existing Western hemlock on campus.
- Climate adaptation scenarios for a resilient future at University of British Columbia Botanical Garden: Modeling 4 Species of Acer (Maple)
As anthropogenic climate change continues to disrupt forests and species’ ecological niches, there is increasing urgency to create plans surrounding adaptation and mitigation for especially vulnerable species. The University of British Columbia’s Botanical Garden (UBCBG) wants to understand species responses to climate change and whether species within their collection will be able to survive in the Garden, given the effects of climate change. One especially important collection UBCBG curates is maple (Acer) trees, currently leading the global consortium of Acer and housing over 50 different species. This study examined the survival probability of four Acer species UBCBG curates including: five-fingered Maple (Acer pentaphyllum Diels), considered critically endangered; paperbark/bloodbark Maple (Acer griseum (Franch.) Pax), considered endangered; bigleaf maple (Acer macrophyllum Pursh), not endangered; and vine maple (Acer circinatum Pursh), not endangered.
- Using SAR Imagery to Assess Forest Distribution on a Cloudy Tropical Island
Tropical forests experience some of the highest rates of deforestation in the world. Accurate mapping and monitoring of the forest is required to mitigate this deforestation, which is complicated in tropical forests due to the high frequency of cloud cover. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery can overcome this challenge by seeing through the clouds. However, the historical lack of freely available SAR imagery means its role in characterizing forest cover is less developed than that of optical imagery. This study aimed to compare freely available SAR imagery with freely available optical imagery in order to characterize the forest cover of a particularly cloudy, mountainous tropical forest in the Philippines.
- Land Surface Temperature Anomalies and Fire Occurrence
Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystem, leading to a deterioration of the air quality, and loss of resources, property animals and people. Understanding the driving factors and the spatial distribution of wildfire benefits local forest fire management planning and resource allocation for fire suppression. To analyze how the land surface temperature (LST) anomaly is related to fire frequency, a fire dataset including more than 400 fires occurred in Cariboo region and a daily LST anomaly dataset based on historical MODIS observations were gathered and processed.
- Fire Occurrences and Land Surface Temperature Anomalies
Victoria, Australia has suffered from forest fire for a long period, and forest cover account for almost 25% of land cover. Therefore, it is significant to control fire events especially predict the fire burning effectively. Land surface temperature (LST) anomaly, as an important index, may build a relationship with fire occurrences to help fire management.
- Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Forest Diversity at UBC
Climate change poses a considerable risk to forest diversity in urban communities. The University of British Columbia (UBC) seeks to identify vulnerable tree species on campus and apply strategies for sustaining arboreal diversity in future decades. In contribution to these efforts, this study investigated the potential shift in tree composition on the UBC Vancouver Campus over the next century by (1) predicting suitable climatic habitat for 128 campus species in 2050 and 2080, and (2) mapping the expected change in species richness across North America.
To better manage green spaces in the face of climate change, the Social Ecological Economic Development Studies program of the University of British Columbia (UBC) organized a series of projects to predict the climate suitability of common tree species at Vancouver campus by 2100. Coniferous trees are vulnerable to changing precipitation and temperature. Western hemlock (Tsuga heterophylla) is a common coniferous tree species at UBC Vancouver campus and was chosen to be analyzed in this study. Climate suitability analysis was done using a MaxEnt model. As a machine-learning algorithm not requiring data about absent points, MaxEnt is considered to be a good tool for predicting the distribution of species. There were 19 bioclimatic variables tested in the analysis, and the precipitation in the coldest quarter of the year was determined to be the most important climatic variable affecting the growth of Western hemlock. The results showed that the occurrence probability of Western hemlock would drop from its current ~87% to ~10% under one of the most likely climate models in 2100. Although this result could not represent the real occurrence probability of Western hemlock by the end of the century due to the limited data and variables considered, this study provided a reference for future climate suitability analysis for other tree species and could potentially help with the protection of existing Western hemlock on campus.
As anthropogenic climate change continues to disrupt forests and species’ ecological niches, there is increasing urgency to create plans surrounding adaptation and mitigation for especially vulnerable species. The University of British Columbia’s Botanical Garden (UBCBG) wants to understand species responses to climate change and whether species within their collection will be able to survive in the Garden, given the effects of climate change. One especially important collection UBCBG curates is maple (Acer) trees, currently leading the global consortium of Acer and housing over 50 different species. This study examined the survival probability of four Acer species UBCBG curates including: five-fingered Maple (Acer pentaphyllum Diels), considered critically endangered; paperbark/bloodbark Maple (Acer griseum (Franch.) Pax), considered endangered; bigleaf maple (Acer macrophyllum Pursh), not endangered; and vine maple (Acer circinatum Pursh), not endangered.
Tropical forests experience some of the highest rates of deforestation in the world. Accurate mapping and monitoring of the forest is required to mitigate this deforestation, which is complicated in tropical forests due to the high frequency of cloud cover. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery can overcome this challenge by seeing through the clouds. However, the historical lack of freely available SAR imagery means its role in characterizing forest cover is less developed than that of optical imagery. This study aimed to compare freely available SAR imagery with freely available optical imagery in order to characterize the forest cover of a particularly cloudy, mountainous tropical forest in the Philippines.
Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystem, leading to a deterioration of the air quality, and loss of resources, property animals and people. Understanding the driving factors and the spatial distribution of wildfire benefits local forest fire management planning and resource allocation for fire suppression. To analyze how the land surface temperature (LST) anomaly is related to fire frequency, a fire dataset including more than 400 fires occurred in Cariboo region and a daily LST anomaly dataset based on historical MODIS observations were gathered and processed.
Victoria, Australia has suffered from forest fire for a long period, and forest cover account for almost 25% of land cover. Therefore, it is significant to control fire events especially predict the fire burning effectively. Land surface temperature (LST) anomaly, as an important index, may build a relationship with fire occurrences to help fire management.
Climate change poses a considerable risk to forest diversity in urban communities. The University of British Columbia (UBC) seeks to identify vulnerable tree species on campus and apply strategies for sustaining arboreal diversity in future decades. In contribution to these efforts, this study investigated the potential shift in tree composition on the UBC Vancouver Campus over the next century by (1) predicting suitable climatic habitat for 128 campus species in 2050 and 2080, and (2) mapping the expected change in species richness across North America.