The University of British Columbia
UBC - A Place of Mind
The University of British Columbia
Faculty of ForestryMGEM Project Library
  • Research Projects
    • Soil
    • 3D + GeoVis
    • Wildlife
    • Climate
    • Water
    • Urban
    • Wildfire
    • Forests
    • Carbon
  • Community Partners
  • Work With Us
  • Mentor Portal

Distribution of Berries in response to climate change

Abstract

Climate change and greenhouse gas emissions are among the most serious issues worldwide, significantly impacting biodiversity and food security. In Canada, berries such as the Saskatoon berry and Red Huckleberry hold considerable cultural, economic, and ecological value. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the future distribution of these two berry species across four time periods – 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and, 2081-2100, focusing on the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island as study area. This study is grounded on ecological relationships between each berry species and their specific tree species – Douglas fir for Saskatoon berry and Western Red Cedar for Red Huckleberry. Adopting, a novel approach, this study shifts from using traditional climate models towards species suitability models of respective tree species for species distribution modelling of berries through MaxEnt algorithm. Our findings indicate a poleward shift in the suitable habitats of both, under current emission scenarios, with Saskatoon berry showing greater adaptability to climate effects. This resilience is evidenced by a minimal predicted loss in habitat by the 2081-2100 period, in contrast to the significant decline observed for the Red Huckleberry. Each model was evaluated with area under the curve (AUC score) and all models showed a good fit, with Saskatoon berry models ranging from 0.878 (2081-2100) to 0.891 (2041-2060) while Red Huckleberry models ranging from 0.839 (2041-2060) to 0.843 (2061-2080). This research also highlights the influence of topography on species distribution. The insights gained are vital for informing ecological restoration and conservation strategies, ensuring the sustainability of these important berry species in the face of climate change.

MGEM Student: Rhythm
Key words: MaxEnt, species distribution modelling, climate change, berries, habitat suitability, ecology

Explore this project

Download the final report and data

Cite this project

Rhythm, 2024, “Distribution of Berries in response to climate change“, https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/TSRJTS, Borealis, V1

Master of Geomatics for Environmental Management
Faculty of Forestry
University of British Columbia
2424 Main Mall
Vancouver, BC Canada V6T 1Z4
Back to top
The University of British Columbia
  • Emergency Procedures |
  • Terms of Use |
  • Copyright |
  • Accessibility