The University of British Columbia
UBC - A Place of Mind
The University of British Columbia
Faculty of ForestryMGEM Project Library
  • Research Projects
    • Soil
    • 3D + GeoVis
    • Wildlife
    • Climate
    • Water
    • Urban
    • Wildfire
    • Forests
    • Carbon
  • Community Partners
  • Work With Us
  • Mentor Portal

Modelling the Effects of Timber Harvest and Harvest Site Selection on Burn Probability

Abstract

Climate change exacerbates wildfire risks globally, with projections indicating a significant increase in their frequency and severity. This study investigates the impact of timber harvesting on wildfire likelihood, focusing on the Mount Rose Swanson Sensitive Area (RSSA) in British Columbia, Canada. Using the Burn-P3 model, three scenarios were simulated: no harvest, harvest in high fire threat areas, and harvest in extreme fire threat areas. The Burn-P3 model simulates fire ignition and growth to calculate burn probabilities across the landscape. Results indicate that timber harvesting increases burn probability, with the highest probabilities observed in extreme fire threat zones. Within the RSSA, burn probabilities were consistently higher, reinforcing the vulnerability of this area. The spatial distribution of burn probabilities highlights the localized impact of harvesting on wildfire risk. These findings support the hypothesis that even a 5% harvest within the RSSA escalates wildfire likelihood. Notably, harvesting in extreme fire threat areas yields the greatest increase in burn probability. The implications of these results underscore the complex relationship between timber harvest and wildfire risk, necessitating careful consideration in forest management practices. Addressing these challenges requires a nuanced approach that balances economic interests with ecosystem resilience and wildfire mitigation strategies.

MGEM Student: Andrea MacDougall
Key words: Forest Management

Explore this project

Download the final report and data

Cite this project

MacDougall, Andrea, 2024, “Modelling the Effects of Timber Harvest and Harvest Site Selection on Burn Probability“, https://doi.org/10.5683/SP3/BVUOC6, Borealis, V1

Master of Geomatics for Environmental Management
Faculty of Forestry
University of British Columbia
2424 Main Mall
Vancouver, BC Canada V6T 1Z4
Back to top
The University of British Columbia
  • Emergency Procedures |
  • Terms of Use |
  • Copyright |
  • Accessibility